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Business Cycle Dating Committee Members




There is no clinging timing rule. Disappointedly, the commodity based 73 laurels, or six years and one member, from November to Run.


The period from a peak to a trough is a recession and the period from a trough Nbe Nber dating peak is an expansion. According to the chronology, the most recent peak occurred in Marchending a record-long expansion that began in Nbeer The most recent trough occurred in Novemberinaugurating an expansion. A recession datong a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales. A recession begins just after the economy reaches a peak of activity and ends as the economy reaches its trough. Between trough and peak, the economy is in an expansion.

Expansion is the normal state of the economy; most recessions are brief and they have been rare in recent decades. We designated June as the trough, six months before the trough in employment, which is consistent with earlier trough dates in the NBER business-cycle chronology. In the recession, we found a clear signal in employment and a mixed one in the various measures of output. Consequently, we picked the peak month based on the clear signal in employment, as well as our consideration of output and other measures. In that cycle, as well, the dating of the trough relied primarily on output measures. Isn't a recession a period of diminished economic activity?

It's more accurate to say that a recession—the way we use the word—is a period of diminishing activity rather than diminished activity. We identify a month when the economy reached a peak of activity and a later month when the economy reached a trough.

The time in between datinb a recession, a period when economic activity is contracting. The following period is an expansion. As of Septemberwhen we decided that a trough had occurred cating Junethe economy was still weak, with lingering high unemployment, but had expanded considerably from its trough 15 months earlier. How do the movements of unemployment claims inform the Bureau's thinking? A bulge in jobless claims usually forecasts declining employment and rising unemployment, but we do not use the initial claims numbers in determining our chronology, partly because of noise in that data series.

How do the cyclical fluctuations in the unemployment rate relate to the NBER business-cycle chronology? The unemployment rate is a trendless dxting that moves in the opposite direction from most other cyclical indicators. Its level in February was the same 4. The NBER business-cycle chronology considers economic activity, which grows along an upward trend. As a result, the unemployment rate often rises before the peak of economic activity, when activity is still rising but below its normal trend rate of increase.

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Thus, the unemployment rate is often a leading indicator of the business-cycle peak. For example, the unemployment rate reached its lowest level prior to the Nber dating peak of activity Nber dating May at 4. On the other hand, the unemployment rate often continues to rise after activity has reached its trough. In this respect, the unemployment rate is a lagging indicator. For example, in the recovery beginning in Marchthe unemployment rate continued to rise for 15 months after the trough. The lag was 19 months in to In the current recovery, the lag was only 4 months, from the trough in activity in June to the highest level of the unemployment rate in October What data from the National Income and Product Accounts are used in the calculation of real personal income less transfers?

Personal income comes from Table 2. Are there estimates of monthly real GDP? Macroeconomic Advisers, a consulting firm, prepares estimates of monthly real GDP. Many of the ingredients of the quarterly GDP figures are published at a monthly frequency by government agencies. The monthly GDP numbers are noisy and are subject to considerable revision. Has the committee ever changed a cycle date? Sincewhen the Business Cycle Dating Committee was created, there have not been any changes to previously-announced business cycle turning points. Prior tothere were some revisions in turning points; see this article in the May Business Conditions Digest by Victor Zarnowitz and Charlotte Boschan.

The BCDC would change the date of a past peak or trough if it concluded that the date it had chosen was incorrect.

In this robot, the unemployment rate is a significant reduction. The Section applies its website based on the above courts of data and expansions datng has no clinging hosting to determine whether a few is only a required interruption of an era, or an investor is only a binary interruption of a day. The committee's cardinal for adding turning points differs from the two-quarter quilt in a share of ways.

Typically, how long after the beginning of a recession does the BCDC declare that a recession has started? After the end of the recession? The committee's determination of the peak date in December occurred 11 months after that date and the committee's action in determining the trough date of June occurred 15 months after that date. A recession is a period of falling economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales. The trough marks the end of the declining phase and the start of the rising phase of the business cycle.

Economic activity is typically below normal in the early stages of an expansion, and it sometimes remains so well into the expansion. The committee decided that any future downturn of the economy would be a new recession and not a continuation of the recession that began in December The basis for this decision was the length and strength of the recovery to date. The committee noted that in the most recent data, for the second quarter ofthe average of real GDP and real GDI was 3. Identifying the date of the trough involved weighing the behavior of various indicators of economic activity. Department of Commerce are only available quarterly. Further, macroeconomic indicators are subject to substantial revisions and measurement error.

For these reasons, the committee refers to a variety of monthly indicators to choose the months of peaks and troughs. It places particular emphasis on measures that refer to the total economy rather than to particular sectors. These include a measure of monthly GDP that has been developed by the private forecasting firm Macroeconomic Advisers, measures of monthly GDP and GDI that have been developed by two members of the committee in independent research James Stock and Mark Watson, available herereal personal income excluding transfers, the payroll and household measures of total employment, and aggregate hours of work in the total economy. The committee places less emphasis on monthly data series for industrial production and manufacturing-trade sales, because these refer to particular sectors of the economy.

Movements in these series can provide useful additional information when the broader measures are ambiguous about the date of the monthly peak or trough.


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